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A generalisation of the tail-based P-value to characterise the conformity of trinomialproportions to prescribed norms

¹ Wales College of Medicine, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff,UK
² Wales College of Medicine, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, UK

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

	Abstract

The traditional concept of a P-value comparing an observed binomial probabilityto a prescribed value is extended to the ordered trinomial case in which targetproportions have been specified for 'excellent', 'acceptable' and 'unacceptable' quality.The resulting trinomial probabilities are summarised by calculating two aggregateprobabilities, relating to outcomes unequivocally better than, and unequivocallyworse than, that actually observed, based on these assumed target proportions.Accumulations of exactly calculated tail probabilities on a mid-P basis are recommended.

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