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Statistical Methods in Medical Research
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Analysis of repeated pregnancy outcomes

Germaine Buck Louis

Epidemiology Branch Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Rockville, MD, USA, louisg{at}mail.nih.gov

Vanja Dukic

Department of Health Studies, University of Chicago, 5841 S. Maryland Ave., MC 2007, Chicago, IL 60637, USA

Patrick J Heagerty

Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Box 357232, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

Thomas A Louis

Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179, USA

Courtney D Lynch

Epidemiology Branch Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Rockville, MD, USA

Louise M Ryan

Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, 655 Huntington Ave., Boston, MA 02115-6009, USA

Enrique F Schisterman

Epidemiology Branch Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Rockville, MD, USA

Ann Trumble

Epidemiology Branch Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Rockville, MD, USA

Pregnancy Modeling Working Group

Women tend to repeat reproductive outcomes, with past history of an adverse outcome being associated with an approximate two-fold increase in subsequent risk. These observations support the need for statistical designs and analyses that address this clustering. Failure to do so may mask effects, result in inaccurate variance estimators, produce biased or inefficient estimates of exposure effects. We review and evaluate basic analytic approaches for analysing reproductive outcomes, including ignoring reproductive history, treating it as a covariate or avoiding the clustering problem by analysing only one pregnancy per woman, and contrast these to more modern approaches such as generalized estimating equations with robust standard errors and mixed models with various correlation structures. We illustrate the issues by analysing a sample from the Collaborative Perinatal Project dataset, demonstrating how the statistical model impacts summary statistics and inferences when assessing etiologic determinants of birth weight.

Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 15, No. 2, 103-126 (2006)
DOI: 10.1191/0962280206sm434oa


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