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Statistical Methods in Medical Research
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Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database

Bernardo Colombo

Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, University of Padova, Padova, Italy, colber{at}stat.unipd.it

Arianna Mion

Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, University of Padova, Padova, Italy

Katia Passarin

University of Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland

Bruno Scarpa

Dipartimento di Statistica ed Economia Applicate, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy

With the collaboration of Italian centres providing services on natural family planning, a prospective study collected data on 2755 menstrual cycles of 193 women. A database was constructed using information on the daily characteristics of cervical mucus and episodes of intercourse. Taking the day of peak mucus as a conventional marker of ovulation, the database identified the length (12 days) and location of a ‘window’ of potential fertility, the highest level of conception probability being confined to the central five to six days. Univariate analysis provided evidence of the impact on fecundability of the woman’s age and the basic infertile pattern of a cycle. Several analytical approaches highlighted the relationship between daily mucus characteristics and levels of fecundability.

Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 15, No. 2, 161-180 (2006)
DOI: 10.1191/0962280206sm437oa
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