This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Cliff, A. Articles by Haggett, P. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Cliff, A. Articles by Haggett, P. Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Statistical modelling of measles and influenza outbreaks

Department of Geography, University of Cambridge

P. Haggett

Department of Geography, University of Bristol

This paper reviews the application of statistical models to outbreaks of two common respiratory viral diseases, measles and influenza. For each disease, we look first at its epidemiological characteristics and assess the extent to which these either aid or hinder modelling. We then turn to the models that have been developed to simulate geographical spread. For measles, a distinction is drawn between process-based and time series models; for influenza, it is the scale of the communities (from small groups to global populations) which primarily determines modelling style. Applications are provided from work by the authors, largely using Icelandic data. Finally we consider the forecasting potential of the models described.

Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 2, No. 1, 43-73 (1993)
DOI: 10.1177/096228029300200104


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				E. Andersson, D. Bock, and M. Frisen Modeling influenza incidence for the purpose of on-line monitoring Statistical Methods in Medical Research, August 1, 2008; 17(4): 421 - 438. [Abstract] [PDF]